I am cautiously hopeful that the change in sovereignty in Iraq will help to normalize the situation there. But it seems like a difficult road ahead. It seems to me that the best thing Allawi could do for himself politically is to find something to disagree with the US about, and soon.
Calling it sovereignty doesn't change the Iraqi public perception that he is a leader that exists as a puppet for the Americans. And the US government can't afford to get out at this point, it *has* to support Allawi unless he crosses the line into actual terror attacks or outright totalitarianism (and I'm not sure even that would be enough for us to leave or risk trying to put in somebody else). So in order to gain any credibility and mandate from Iraq, it is imperative that he demonstrate his independence. I'm quite curious to see how he will decide to do so. His decision on the matter will likely have a huge impact on how the handover goes, and whether we end up in a year with a Democratic Nationally Unified Iraq or a revolution similar to the one in Iran.
I'm certain the scariest part for the chessboard types in the State Department is that they will have limited control over which it will be. And if the result is a fervently Islamist State similar to Iran, the entire exercise in Iraq will be a failure on every front, from WMDs to Terror to Regional Stability. Right now, I don't see any clear indication that we are far closer to one than the other. And that is terrifying.
What I am curious to see is how the new interim govement engineers transfer to a more permanent goverment.
With the current state of chaos in Iraq, a general election sounds very unpleasant. Would you want to take part in an election campaign right now in Iraq ? Would you go out to vote ?
Much of the unrest will not likely settle untill a popular goverment takes control - and I mean popular to the people of Iraq, not the US.
In the worst case, what happens if it is one of the religious factions that do win such an election. Doesn't sound like a solution for peace to me, sounds like a new ghaza strip.
Indeed, except now instead of Sunni Muslims and Jews, its Sunni or Shi'a Muslims fighting each other, and the Kurds (and probably Israel when they have free time).